Frontier Investment Management
November 15, 2024
Second Week of November 2024
THE WELL-TH NOTES
Weekly data-driven insights on the markets and economy
1. Gains Season?
The S&P 500 struggled to maintain its post-election gains, with stocks losing momentum in late trading on November 13. Despite positive inflation data and a high probability of another Fed rate cut in December, investor concerns about market overextension led to mixed market performance. The Nasdaq fell slightly, while the Dow Jones saw a minor increase, and Treasury yields rose.[i]
2. Slippery Slope
U.S. crude oil futures fell below $69 per barrel this Thursday the 14th, driven by expectations of a large surplus in 2025 and weakening demand in China. The International Energy Agency predicts global supplies will outstrip demand by over 1 million barrels per day next year, leading UBS to cut its price forecast for Brent crude. Additionally, the recent surge in the U.S. dollar has contributed to the decline in oil prices.[ii]
3. Small Step, Big Impact
On November 7, the Federal Reserve approved a quarter-point interest rate cut, following a larger reduction in September, to adjust monetary policy. The unanimous decision led to positive market reactions, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing at record highs, while Treasury yields dropped. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to recalibrate policy to support both employment and inflation goals.[iii]
4. Push for Pension Checks
This Wednesday November 13th, the House passed the bipartisan Social Security Fairness Act, aimed at increasing Social Security benefits for certain pensioners by repealing the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset. The bill now heads to the Senate, where it already has significant support. Critics argue it could weaken Social Security’s long-term solvency, while supporters hail it as a victory for public sector workers.[iv]
5. No Shave November
Amazon announced fixed pricing for Prime members on treatments for conditions like men’s hair loss, intensifying competition with direct-to-consumer marketplaces such as Hims & Hers Health. This move led to a 22% drop in Hims & Hers stock as analysts downgraded its shares, citing Amazon’s significantly cheaper prices. Amazon’s new offerings build on its acquisition of One Medical and aim to provide affordable telehealth services for various common conditions.[v]
6. Tis the Grammy Season
The 2025 Grammy Award nominations were announced on November 8, with Beyoncé leading the pack with 11 nominations, bringing her career total to 99, the most of any artist. Kendrick Lamar, Charli XCX and Billie Eilish each received seven nominations. Winners will be revealed at the event in Los Angeles on February 2.[vi]
[i] Nazareth, Rita, “S&P 500 Struggles to Extend Post-Election Advance: Markets Wrap,” Yahoo!Finance, November 13, 2024, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bonds-drop-us-inflation-rate-224554113.html. Accessed November 14, 2024.
[ii] Kimball, Spencer, “U.S. crude oil edges higher but closes below $69 as large surplus expected next year,” CNBC, November 14, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/crude-oil-prices-today.html. Accessed November 14, 2024.
[iii] Cox, Jeff, “Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point,” CNBC, November 7, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/07/fed-rate-decision-november-2024.html. Accessed November 14, 2024.
[iv] Lorie Konish, “The House just voted ‘yes’ on a bill that would increase Social Security checks for some pensioners,” CNBC, November 13, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/house-just-voted-yes-to-increase-social-security-for-some-beneficiaries.html. Accessed November 14, 2024.
[v] Capoot, Ashley, “Amazon launches fixed pricing for treatment of conditions such as hair loss. Hims & Hers stock drops 24%,” CNBC, November 14, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/amazon-launches-fixed-pricing-to-treat-hair-loss-erectile-dysfunction.html. Accessed November 14, 2024.
[vi] Lisa Respers France, “Grammy Award nominations 2025 revealed,” CNN Entertainment, November 8, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/entertainment/grammy-nominations-2025/index.html. Accessed November 14, 2024.
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