Second Week of February 2025

THE WELL-TH NOTES

Weekly data-driven insights on the markets and economy

1. Inflation exceeds forecast

Inflation perked up more than anticipated in January, providing further incentive for the Fed to hold the line on interest rates. The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, higher than the Dow Jones estimates of 0.3% and 2.9%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the CPI rose 0.4% on the month, with a 12-month inflation rate of 3.3%, both figures above forecasts. Markets tumbled following the news, with futures tied to the Dow Jones sliding more than 400 points while bond yields scaled sharply higher.^[i]

2. Novartis acquires Anthos Therapeutics

Novartis announced on Tuesday that it will acquire Anthos Therapeutics, a biopharma firm majority-owned by Blackstone’s drug development unit, for up to $3.1 billion to enhance its cardiovascular business. Anthos focuses on developing abelacimab, a treatment for strokes and blood clots. The deal, expected to close in the first half of this year, highlights Novartis’ commitment to cardiovascular therapies as its best-selling heart failure drug Entresto loses patent protection this year. Novartis will pay $925 million upfront, with additional payments based on development milestones.^[ii]

3. Anti-bribery law paused

President Trump signed an executive order on Monday directing the Department of Justice to pause enforcing the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), a nearly half-century-old law that prohibits bribing foreign officials to obtain or retain business. The pause aims to avoid putting U.S. businesses at an economic disadvantage compared to foreign competitors. Trump has tasked Attorney General Pam Bondi with preparing new guidelines for the law’s enforcement.^[iii]

4. Tariff threats boost gold

Gold surged past $2,900 to a new record on Monday, driven by escalated tariff threats and bullish sentiment from Wall Street analysts. Gold futures climbed more than 1.6% to approximately $2,935 after hitting all-time highs last week. President Trump announced plans to introduce 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, further fueling demand for the safe-haven asset.^[iv]

5. No sense in making 1 cent?

On Monday, President Trump ordered a halt to the production of new pennies, citing their high cost as wasteful government spending. According to an annual report, the U.S. Mint spent 3.69 cents to manufacture each penny in 2024. It is unclear, however, if Trump has the authority to make this decision, as coinage power is exclusive to Congress.^[v]

6. Super Bowl 59 smashes records

The Philadelphia Eagles weren’t the only ones that scored big at the Super Bowl. The NFL’s championship game attracted a record 127.7 million viewers on Sunday, according to Nielsen Media Research. This massive live audience was important for advertisers who paid up to $8 million for a spot during the game. The game aired on multiple platforms, including Fox Corporation’s broadcast network, Fox Deportes, Telemundo, and Tubi, breaking streaming records with 14.5 million viewers. ^[vi]

^[i] Cox, Jeff. “Consumer prices rise 0.5% in January, higher than expected as annual rate rises to 3%.” CNBC, 12 Feb. 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/cpi-january-2025.html. Accessed February 12, 2025.
^[ii] Burger, Ludwig and Luthi, Ariane. “Novartis buys Blackstone’s Anthos for up to $3.1 billion.” Reuters, 11 Feb. 2025, https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/novartis-agrees-acquire-anthos-up-31-bln-2025-02-11/. Accessed February 12, 2025.
^[iii] Javers, Eamon and Mangan, Dan. “Trump signs order pausing enforcement of foreign bribery ban.” CNBC, 10 Feb. 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/trump-doj-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-pause.html. Accessed February 12, 2025.
^[iv] Ferré, Ines. “Gold surges past $2,900 to new record amid tariff threats.” Yahoo, 10 Feb. 2025, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-surges-past-2900-to-new-record-amid-tariff-threats-154324698.html. Accessed February 12, 2025.
^[v] Min, Sarah. “Trump takes aim at ‘wasteful’ government spending by ordering end to penny production.” CNBC, 10 Feb. 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/trump-aims-at-wasteful-spending-by-ordering-end-to-penny-production.html.Accessed February 12, 2025.
^[vi] Rizzo, Lillian. “Super Bowl 59 attracts record 127.7 million viewers.” CNBC, 11 Feb. 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/11/super-bowl-59-viewership.html. Accessed February 12, 2025.