First Week of April 2025

THE WELL-TH NOTES

Weekly data-driven insights on the markets and economy

1. Liberation Day

Dubbed as “Liberation Day” by President Trump, on Wednesday, April 2, at 4pm ET, the President will roll out his biggest trade policy to date. Expectations span from a universal tariff rate of 20% to a country-by-country approach. Trump mentioned on Monday that he has come to a conclusion after a weeks-long saga in which stocks have mostly seesawed in negative territory.^[i]

2. Springtime Unemployment

With the aforementioned tariffs creating plenty of uncertainty for employers, the U.S. economy is on track to add 140,000 jobs in March, according to forecasts, a slight tick down from February’s 151,000 new jobs. Adding to the unease for Friday’s expectations are the thousands of federal workers who have been laid off and sticky inflation numbers.^[ii]

3. Higher than we thought

The Fed’s key inflation measure remained sticky for February, rising more than the expected 0.4% for the month. The PCE inflation reading showed that shelter costs have been one of the stickiest elements of inflation and rose 0.3% for the month. Economists expect the Fed’s timeline for any cuts will continue to be in a wait-and-see mode.^[iii]

4. Just not Doing it

Although Nike beat Wall Street’s expectations for their fiscal third quarter, shares got hit due to much lower guidance, especially in their key market of China. To no surprise, Nike mentioned that potential new tariffs, volatile exchange rates and tax regulations add to their conservative earnings forecast.^[iv]

5. Predicatably Unpredictable

Bracket busters, beware! Or better, bracket busters, where? The four No. 1 seeds have remained in the dance as the final four teams in the tournament. Being that this is only the second time this has happened, fans nationwide have watched this year’s March Madness with a collective yawn.^[v]

6. Rocket Mortgage takes off

Rocket Mortgage announced on Monday that it is acquiring Mr. Cooper in a $9.4 billion all-stock deal, following its purchase of Redfin. This will create a business representing one in six U.S. mortgages, adding nearly seven million clients and boosting loan volumes while lowering acquisition costs. Mr. Cooper CEO Jay Bray will become president and CEO of Rocket Mortgage, aiming to offer an end-to-end homeownership experience backed by leading technology and customer care. ^[vi]

^[i] “Here’s What To Know About ‘Liberation Day’ – From Announcement Time To What Trump May Target.” Forbes, April 2, 2025, https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/04/02/heres-what-to-know-about-liberation-day-from-announcement-time-to-what-trump-may-target/. Accessed April 2, 2025.
^[ii] “What To Expect From Friday’s Jobs Report.” Investopedia, April 1 2025, https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-from-friday-s-jobs-report-11706421#:~:text=A%20report%20from%20the%20Bureau,stay%20at%204.1%25%2C%20close%20to. Accessed April 2, 2025.
^[iii] “Core inflation in February hit 2/8%, higher than expected; spending increases 0.4%.” CNBC, March 28, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/pce-inflation-february-2025-.html. Accessed April 2, 2025.
^[iv] “Nike expects sales will plunge in current quarter as it faces tariffs, sliding consumer confidence.” CNBC, March 20, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/nike-nke-q3-2025-earnings.html. Accessed April 2, 2025.
^[v] “When is the last time all Final Four Teams were No. 1 seeds? Auburn finishes first sweep since 2008.” USA Today, March 30, 2025, https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2025/03/30/number-1-seeds-final-four-sweep-2008-auburn-florida-houston-duke/82732778007/. Accessed April 2, 2025.
^[vi] “Mortgage company Rocket buying Mr. Cooper in all-stock deal valued at $9.4 billion.” CNBC, March 32, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/mortgage-company-rocket-buying-mr-cooper-in-all-stock-deal-valued-at-9point4-billion.html. Accessed March 31, 2025.